7 October 2023: fighters of the Al Quassem Brigades (the military wing of Hamas), disguised as Israeli soldiers, attack IDF military bases outside the Gaza Strip. Commandos overcame the Israeli border wall to Gaza with improvised gliders and landed deep in Israeli territory. It marks the beginning of ‘Operation Al-Aqsa Flood’, starting with a spectacular strike by Palestinian forces against Israel. The operation’s name reflects its aim: to prevent further desecration of the Al-Aqsa Mosque by Jewish-Sabbatian sects and to alert Muslim neighbours to the plight of the Palestinians. It is clear from the start that this conflict, which began not just in October of this year but back in 1948 with Israeli land acquisition in Palestine, has the potential to ignite a regional conflagration that could engulf not only the entire Middle East, including Cairo and Tehran, but also escalate into a world war involving major powers like the USA, Russia, and China.
Israel Caught Unprepared: The ‘Yom Kippur’ Syndrome Strikes Again
Gilad Atzmon, the Israeli musician and critic of Zionism, describes the situation as the ‘Yom Kippur Syndrome’. Similar to the multi-front war of the same name in 1973, Israel in 2023 was unexpectedly attacked by a weaker opponent, despite Mossad having obtained Hamas’s attack plans a year earlier, as reported by the New York Times. The reason lies in the Israeli leadership’s arrogance: In Tel Aviv, there is a belief in their own bombastic propaganda about the capabilities of the Mossad and the IDF, dismissing the Hamas attack plans as unfeasible for the Palestinians. The ‘human animals’ (Defence Minister Yoav Galant) could never surprise the ‘world’s best intelligence service’ (Mossad’s self-description). Yet October 7 proved otherwise. The myth of the invincible Israeli army and its exceptional intelligence was shattered overnight. The Israeli missile defence system ‘Iron Dome’ failed, overwhelmed by the volume of rockets. Fortunately for Israel, its closest ally, the USA, was immediately on hand: ammunition and weapons intended for Ukraine were rapidly redirected, and two aircraft carrier groups were stationed in the Levant for ‘support’. This was a threat aimed at Iran to prevent intervention, but a U.S. military attack to support Israel also seems possible. However, an attack on Tehran could lead to a world war with Russia and China.
Hezbollah and Houthis: Israel’s Fear of a Multi-Front War
The Palestinian forces — including fighters from Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the communist PFLP — managed to take more than 200 hostages. Although the Palestinians acted independently, fears of a second front emerged: the Shiite party and militia Hezbollah in Lebanon, a potent enemy of Tel Aviv since 2008, ties down significant Israeli forces with its up to 150,000 fighters. The Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen have been launching drones and rockets at Israel since the war’s onset — their deployment of several thousand fighters was only prevented by vetoes from Saudi Arabia and Jordan. So far, the Shiite warriors in Lebanon have limited themselves to rocket attacks on Israeli positions and destroying a few tanks on the northern front, which Israel responded to with airstrikes.
Iran: ‘Jerusalem Belongs to Us!’ — Supporting Hamas but No Direct Intervention Yet
Iran maintains its role as a protector of oppressed Muslims worldwide. More than 5 million have registered as potential volunteers in the ‘Al-Aqsa Storm’ campaign, marked by slogans such as ‘Jerusalem belongs to us!’, which have caught attention in the West. However, Tehran’s involvement so far is limited to financial and military support for Hamas. Iranian Culture Minister Ezzatollah Zarghami has confirmed past arms deliveries to Hamas. Iran also finances rocket production in Gaza to maintain Hamas’s striking power. An open intervention has likely been avoided because Tehran, lacking nuclear weapons, does not see itself ready for direct confrontation with nuclear powers like the USA and Israel. For Israel, the ‘Samson Option’ lies on the table: this refers to the use of the estimated 400 nuclear weapons in its arsenal against an external enemy if its existence is threatened.
‘Hannibal’ and the ‘Mad Dog’ Strategy: A Military Hostage Crisis Threatening to Escalate into a World War
From the beginning, Israel has also staged the war as a military hostage drama, following the IDF’s ‘Hannibal’ doctrine, which tolerates civilian casualties in hostage rescue operations to primarily kill the hostage-takers. Civilian casualties at an Israeli music festival near Gaza and in the kibbutzes in the south of the country are largely attributed to a panicky army under the Star of David in the early days of the war. Israel’s politically embattled Prime Minister Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu — with protesters in the streets of Tel Aviv shouting to Hamas, ‘Give us the hostages! Take Bibi!’ — initiated a draconian response: the Israeli air force and army began intensive bombardment of the Gaza Strip. Ignoring ancient churches, mosques, or hospitals, Israel’s revenge overwhelmingly affected civilians, not Hamas fighters. Of the more than 15,000 confirmed casualties (as of 1 December 2023), the majority are women and children. Leaked documents now prove that Tel Aviv’s leadership, inspired by revisionist Zionism, long harboured plans for genocide in Gaza — hence Israel’s desire to expel the more than two million Palestinians there to Egypt, a red line for Cairo and a reason for it to enter the war.
The horrifying images of murdered children and women are enraging over a billion Muslims worldwide. Not only in Western metropolises but also in Muslim cities like Istanbul, Cairo, and Damascus, and in countries like Pakistan and Indonesia, hundreds of thousands have taken to the streets. Should Israel continue to slaughter civilians in Gaza under its ‘Mad Dog’ strategy or preemptively attack Damascus and other foreign cities as before, the power of the streets might compel Muslim states to intervene. The strategy, coined by Israeli tank general Moshe Dayan, where Israel behaves like a ‘mad dog’ to avoid attack, may have worked in the 1960s, but geopolitical conditions have changed.
Iran has become a drone superpower and battle-hardened through its Revolutionary Guards across the region — since October 7, the ‘Axis of Resistance’ launched over 70 attacks on U.S. bases in the Middle East. The armies of Turkey (the second-largest in NATO) and Egypt are formidable forces. Former protectorate Russia — with a large population of Jews from Eurasia in Israel — advocates a two-state solution and condemns attacks on civilians, as does economic superpower China, whose Belt and Road Initiative includes ports in Israel. These allies of Tehran could initiate a sanctions policy to economically cripple Tel Aviv. Finally, the radical right’s foreign policy in Israel has achieved what left Zionists like Ben Gurion and Golda Meir always avoided — uniting the entire Islamic world, Sunnis and Shiites, in hatred of the Zionist state, including nuclear power Pakistan. This unity makes Israel’s situation increasingly precarious: lack of military success, costs exceeding 200 million USD per day, and international pressure could bring an end to Israel’s military operation. As long as the war continues, the threat of global escalation remains.
