The failed raid on Belgorod during the election period was just another pathetic Ukrainian embarrassment.
It is a type of military action without any practical results, which does not change anything in the power relations on the battlefield. These are lives wasted uselessly, at a time when Ukraine’s recruitment difficulties are immense.
Instead of trying to think of effective ways to defend itself, Ukraine insists on operations in which the only victory is to reach newspaper headlines and prime time on Western TV.
This may result in a few more shipments of weapons, vehicles, and ammunition, but the pace of deliveries is already far behind the pace of production and delivery of the Russian military industry in 2024.
Naturally, there was an intention to ‘disrupt the elections’, but taken in the general context of the Russian electoral process in the largest country in the world, the incursion was like a mosquito bite and had no influence on the course of the election. On the contrary, it appears that there was the highest popular participation in history since 1991.
These incursions did not occur in isolation, however. They appear to have been part of an entire hybrid mega-operation aimed at disrupting the Russian electoral process.
During the elections, Russia suffered one of the largest coordinated cyberattacks in recent years, but with few verifiable effects except for the occasional government website temporarily going offline. The voting itself could not be affected even if it were tried, as paper ballots are still used in Russia.
The attacks were mostly directed against informational websites. There was also concern about the creation of front websites containing false information about the elections.
And in addition to the cyberattacks there was a major disinformation operation, starting days before when official US government media began warning about imminent terrorist attacks in Moscow.
As the operational capacity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is degraded and Russia advances, hybrid operations of this type, with or without coordination with guerrilla actions and drone incursions, are likely to increase.
