Escalation: 2024 in Review

The Special Military Operation (SMO) as the Measure of All Things

Alexey Osin (Radio Sputnik): The main focus for us this year has been the SMO.

Alexander Dugin: The SMO is now the central issue for us, our people, and our state. The philosopher Protagoras said that man is the measure of all things. For us now, the SMO is the measure of all things. In this concluding year of 2024, there has been a decisive turning point in the SMO.

Despite the invasion by Ukrainian Nazis into the Kursk region, the seizure of Sudzha, and other territories from which we, unfortunately, have not yet been able to fully expel them, there has been an overall shift in the SMO in our favor this year. Russia has begun, albeit slowly, but steadily and irreversibly, to advance. This westward movement is most clearly evident in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), where it is most visible and palpable. It practically signifies the completion of the liberation of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), with only a few percent of its territory remaining to be liberated. Additionally, we have made advances in the Kharkov region.

This year has made it clear that Russia’s determination to conclude the SMO with victory and to achieve its original objectives cannot be doubted by anyone. No proposals that do not involve the total and unconditional capitulation of the Kiev Nazi regime will be accepted by us. This is absolutely clear. The resolve of our leadership, our people, our society, our army, and our entire state — everything that constitutes Russia as a state-civilization — is unambiguous.

Fundamental but perhaps not highly visible, though critical, infrastructural successes have been achieved in this direction. Ukraine has finally ceased offensive operations and is unable to adequately resist us. We are steadily advancing towards our goal — towards Kiev and the complete liberation of Ukraine from the Nazi regime.

This difficult, bloody, and arduous year for all of us has nevertheless concluded with results that favor us. We are gradually beginning to win the SMO, and this is the main result, as it is through the lens of the SMO that we must evaluate everything else happening in and around our country.

Reasons for the Turning Point: Overcoming Liberalism

Alexey Osin: Why did this turning point occur? In which area was it most significant?

Alexander Dugin: Any victory contains rational, social, economic, psychological, organizational, purely military, and political dimensions. But there is always a spiritual aspect to victory. In 2024, a serious turning point occurred in our society as a whole.

Perhaps until this moment, many believed that the SMO was merely a technical issue, a systemic malfunction, or some local phenomenon. Some thought our conflict with the West was situational and would soon end one way or another, returning everything to normal. Consequently, the army, society, the economy, political elites, and our ordinary citizens lived in the usual peacetime rhythm.

Unfortunately, peaceful periods, times without war, have proven to be a significant challenge for our society. We often win wars but just as often lose peace. We fail to use peace for its intended purpose. This leads to decay and rampant corruption, which we have only recently begun to tackle seriously.

In 2024, the turning point occurred across all these levels. Most importantly, it happened in the spirit and consciousness of our society. We finally realized that this is war, that it is serious, and that it will not resolve itself. Everyone must take part in it.

I see these changes in higher education, among students and youth, officials, senior state figures, businesspeople — at every level. Our people have finally understood, three years into the war, that it is ongoing and serious. This is not a situational disruption but a mortal conflict with Western civilization as such. This realization signifies that we are not part of it. We are something unique, a distinct civilization that is, in many ways, the antithesis of the West.

Thus, there has been a complete collapse of the liberal worldview within Russia itself. Being a liberal has proven to be outright criminal. We see this now. For some, liberalism was a delusion; for others, a conscious act of sabotage or even treason. We will be investigating this issue for many years. Each individual liberal must be examined: how they ended up in the liberal camp, how liberalism infiltrated the upper echelons of the political system, and how it led to such catastrophic consequences. This work is ahead of us, but regardless, a turning point has occurred. Overcoming liberalism is a decisive step towards victory, towards the ideology of victory, towards the Russian Idea.

Mobilizing Society

Alexander Dugin: Of course, the turning point also affected technical, economic, and governmental areas. The appointment of Andrey Belousov as Minister of Defense was a long-awaited, necessary, and lifesaving step. It had been clear that something was wrong with our army, but patriots could not criticize it openly. We do not criticize the army; we only praise and support it. However, any citizen — whether on the frontline or in the rear — understands that these personnel changes are more than mere reshuffles. They signify a crucial adjustment in the course of the Special Military Operation.

This shift in strategy, combined with an uncompromising stance against any corruption in the military, has significantly improved the situation in our armed forces overall.

Similarly, the mobilization of the economy is happening gradually but steadily. We are embarking on a technological leap forward, evidenced by successful innovations such as the “Oreshnik” system.1 Society and psychology are being mobilized as well.

I doubt we have a numerical advantage on the Line of Contact (LoC) — that information is classified — but it is unlikely we have significant superiority in manpower. Modern warfare, after all, is not just about numbers.

Nevertheless, volunteers are enlisting en masse, as confirmed recently by the President and other officials. While we are not conducting full-scale forced mobilization, we are witnessing a mobilization of spirit, a surge of volunteers. More and more people are stepping forward to defend the Motherland in this challenging situation.

I believe we have reached a pivotal point this year. The process of the SMO will undergo significant transformation, leading to a cumulative effect.

In my view, 2025 will be decisive, as many factors in international politics point in that direction.

For instance, the victory of Trump and his supporters in the U.S. presidential elections will undoubtedly impact Ukraine.

Our Cause Is Just, and Theirs Is Not

Alexey Osin: People are willingly joining our army. In Ukraine, they have to resort to hunting people down. Why is this?

Alexander Dugin: The difference lies in the cause each side is fighting for. The losses Ukraine is currently suffering — territorial, political, economic, and in human lives — are the result of the Nazi regime that took root in Kiev in 2014. Essentially, they are the architects of the tragedy that has befallen Ukraine. They created a false and criminal ideology based on racism and Russophobia, and the consequences were immediate. Following their seizure of power in the 2014 coup, they lost Crimea, parts of Novorossiya, and several regions — DPR and LPR, at the very least. The more they persisted in their ways, the more they lost.

This cannot go unnoticed by Ukrainian citizens. The government currently waging war and relying on a terrorist, Russophobic, neo-Nazi ideology is itself responsible for Ukraine’s tragedies and losses, both territorial and human. Our leaders recently stated that Ukraine has lost around a million people or more. When you add the refugees to this number, it becomes staggering.

And who is to blame for this? The leaders of the Nazi junta claim it is Russia. But Ukrainians are increasingly understanding that the blame cannot rest solely on us, no matter what they are told. They believed the Russophobic myth, but now it is collapsing before their eyes.

We, on the other hand, are fighting for a just cause. We are fighting for our historical existence, our identity, and our state-civilization. Ukraine is part of this shared state-civilization, as it always has been. It is not the first time we have fought to free Ukraine from Western influence. This pattern has repeated itself throughout our history: when Russia is weak, alternative geopolitical forces from the West try to establish control over these borderlands. When we regain strength, we restore control over these territories, which were once the cradle of our statehood. These are our ancestral lands, not new acquisitions. We are reclaiming what is ours — not for ourselves, but for all of us collectively.

We are fighting against the chimerical ideology of Ukrainian nationalism, against the criminal neo-Nazi ideology. We are fighting for a just cause. We are fighting for Ukrainians, too — not against them. We are fighting for Russians, Orthodox Christians, Little Russians,2 and all those who are part of our unified, triune nation: Great Russians, Little Russians, and Belarusians. We understand this, even as they fight against us and against themselves.

The destructive and suicidal objectives of the Kiev junta are becoming increasingly apparent to Ukrainians themselves. That is why many are doing everything possible to evade forced mobilization.

In fact, Ukraine has become a totalitarian regime. In Russia, however, everything is voluntary, thoughtful, and conscious — and it is becoming more so as time goes on. The righteousness of our state, our army, and our society in the SMO is being increasingly recognized by broader segments of the population.

The Revival of Ideology

Our society has been de-ideologized in recent decades. But now it is entering a new era of ideological revival. This time, however, the ideology is natural, organic, and arises from within human souls and hearts. It is the Russian Idea, which, in essence, has always driven our history.

We are beginning to understand it better and better. Our people increasingly realize that there are values higher than life itself. Any idea gains true substance and meaning when people are willing to give their lives for it. There is no greater price. When an idea is sanctified by blood and illuminated by the sacrifices of our people, it becomes magnetic. Now, it is beginning to captivate our society.

Patriotism, awareness of the importance of the nation’s sovereignty, faith, loyalty to the President — our Supreme Leader — and a return to our Byzantine Orthodox roots and the spiritual treasure of Russian Orthodoxy are all spreading and taking hold among increasingly broad segments of the population.

This also influences why people voluntarily join the effort to defend the Motherland during this time of great trials.

I Believe in Our People

Alexey Osin: After World War Two, it took until 1955 to fully eradicate the Bandera movement. Over ten years, 30,000 people lost their lives. Why are you optimistic that we can deal with them by the fourth year of this war?

Alexander Dugin: First, I believe in our people, our state, and our history. This war is not incidental. It may be the most important and sacred war in our history — a confrontation with the West being fought on the territory of Ukraine.

The West has reached a critical point of degeneration and decay. Today, it is an openly Satanic civilization, hurling a deadly challenge at us — the ark of salvation, the Katechon — on the battlefield of Ukraine. They wanted to destroy us, strip us of independence, identity, and sovereignty. Their goal was to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, a fact they openly admitted.

For us, this is a sacred war. The more we understand this, the more the might of our people is awakened. I believe 2025 will be the year this awakening reaches its peak.

Secondly, Ukrainian society is beginning to see the truth. They are realizing that the issue isn’t just “bad Russians” but rather the necessity of resisting a Nazi leadership that enforces a Russophobic, terrorist ideology and practice. We are not fighting against Ukrainians but for them. Ukrainian society is slowly coming to its senses. Some flee, some hide, and some join the resistance. I think 2025 will mark the beginning of genuine anti-Nazi partisan activity within Ukraine itself.

Thirdly, there are fundamental global changes underway, particularly in the United States. A non-globalist, even anti-globalist faction has come to power there. This will bring a completely new approach to foreign policy. While this is not a gift or an easing of our path to victory, it does mean the new American leadership will reevaluate its stance on Ukraine. This is certain.

Until the Unconditional Capitulation of Kiev

Alexey Osin: As of now, there seem to be no prerequisites for ending the conflict. Dmitry Peskov, the President’s press secretary, recently stated this outright.

Alexander Dugin: The current conditions on the ground are unacceptable to anyone. We are still far from victory and from the unconditional capitulation of our enemy. These are the starting conditions from which we might begin to discuss peace.

The current Nazi leadership in Kiev has not abandoned its goals of reclaiming Novorossiya, seizing Crimea, or attacking Russia. They are entirely unprepared to recognize even the current status quo, which is unsatisfactory to both sides. Meanwhile, the outgoing globalist leadership in the White House, which bears responsibility for initiating this conflict, had the explicit aim of destroying Russia and inflicting a strategic defeat on us. This goal has not been achieved — far from it. On the contrary, the war has had the opposite effect. Russia has awakened, risen, and rediscovered its historical role in the global context.

Thus, it is clear that there will be no agreements with the current American administration. It is neither credible nor trustworthy. These are the primary perpetrators of this conflict. Negotiating with terrorists is unthinkable. Therefore, no prerequisites for peaceful negotiations exist — and they will not for a long time.

Even under Trump, there will be no quick resolution. While he might offer a slightly different approach, Trump will first need to consolidate his position, defeat his enemies, and reevaluate U.S. foreign policy. If anyone believes this conflict can be resolved, paused, or frozen quickly, they are mistaken. That is a completely naive and erroneous goal.

Ukrainian Nazi propagandists have recently started claiming that peace is imminent, saying, “Trust us, within a day, there will be a truce; Trump will tell Putin, and Putin will end everything.” This is utter nonsense. Nobody can dictate terms to Putin. We are fighting precisely for the sovereignty and independence of our state.

Until we achieve total victory and fully realize the objectives of the Special Military Operation — complete denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine — we will not engage in serious peace talks. Any negotiations will be deferred indefinitely. While we keep the door open diplomatically, our terms are non-negotiable: surrender, and we will spare you; refuse, and you will not be spared.

The Main Event of the Year: Trump’s Election

Alexey Osin: The AI has reported the following major events of 2024:

• In Russia, presidential elections took place, with Vladimir Putin winning a fifth term.
• In the U.S., Donald Trump won the presidential election, becoming the first president since Grover Cleveland to be elected to a non-consecutive second term.
• In December 2024, Bashar al-Assad fled Syria, leading to the fall of the Ba’ath regime.
• The continuation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with a noticeable turning point in the fighting, favoring Russia.
• An escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, leading to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon.
• A significant worsening of the situation in Gaza due to the Israel-Hamas war, causing mass civilian casualties.

Perhaps the most important of these events was Trump’s election in America.

Alexander Dugin: Yes, that is precisely it. From the outset, we must understand that there are two fundamentally wrong perspectives when evaluating Trump’s victory. The first completely erroneous view is that nothing will change, that Trump will be forced to continue the same policies as before and that the globalist agenda will persist. This is the approach that has dominated for the last 30 years, except for Trump’s own presidency from 2016-2020.

The agenda has been to promote left-wing globalism, with a focus on LGBT issues, woke ideology, the destruction of traditional values, and the promotion of a single, international, transnational world order, led by a global government and liberal elites. Trump openly rejects this and has no intention of continuing it. This is a serious shift.

When Trump first entered the White House, globalists thought it was just a “short circuit,” a technical failure. But his deliberate and decisive reelection for a second term means that it was not a failure — it was the clear and unambiguous will of the majority of the American people. This cannot simply be dismissed.

Today, more and more people in America are acknowledging the ideological victory of Trump over the globalists. Europe refuses to face the truth and remains unconscious, but American society recognizes this change. Trumpism represents a new ideology, one that decisively rejects left-wing liberalism and globalism, but what it affirms is still unclear.

A New Direction for the U.S.

To think that everything will remain the same is utterly incorrect, and any analysis based on this simplistic framework — “nothing will change, we will pay for our hopes” — is naive and unrealistic.

However, there is also another unrealistic position: that Trump represents a worldview similar to our own. Perhaps there are similarities in rejecting woke culture, LGBT issues, and liberalism, and in striving to return to traditional values. But the problem is that their traditional values are very different from ours. American traditional values, as Trump sees them, have only a distant and mediated relationship with ours. Yes, Trump will change ideology, shift geopolitical priorities, but American — traditional — values as he understands them bear no relation to ours. Therefore, to hope that everything will immediately improve with Trump’s arrival is equally naive and incorrect.

It is more accurate to say that Trump will change U.S. policy by 90 degrees, compared to Biden’s administration — not 180 degrees. This is a good thing, of course, as it represents a shift in the right direction, but it is still only a 90-degree change, not a complete overhaul. This will not lead to peace immediately. It will require a very complex process to build relationships with the new administration.

Nevertheless, we must understand that an ideological revolution has taken place in America, with the ideology of hyper-individualism, dehumanization, gender politics, woke culture, cancel culture, and hatred of one’s own roots being discarded. Trump and his supporters have decisively rejected internationalist liberal globalism. This means a post-liberal ideology is now entering the U.S. and the West.

Many things that were once forbidden will now be permitted. For example, the ideas and movements that left-wing liberals branded as “fascist” or “far-right” are now being embraced by figures like J. D. Vance, Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, Tucker Carlson, Kash Patel, Vivek Ramaswamy, Robert Kennedy, Tulsi Gabbard, Matt Gaetz, Steve Bannon — essentially the core group of Trumpism.

It is impossible to ignore this. And of course, it will affect relations with Europe, with us, with China, and with the Middle East. The West’s hegemonic control will continue, but it will take on new forms, new ideological priorities, and new instruments.

Russia’s Strategy and the New Ideology

Trump and Trumpism represent a combination of technological advancement with a defense of conservative values, even up to the point of supporting monarchy. In this new ideological environment, we see the emergence of new and extravagant ideological coalitions. If the globalists do not initiate a new World War by January 20, 2025, the moment of Trump’s inauguration, we will witness a radically new America with a new ideology. This will lead to a completely new balance of power in the world, with a Washington administration that is unpredictable and in many ways at odds with previous globalist ideologies.

We can already see how figures like Elon Musk, the second-in-command of Trump’s team, are supporting parties like the AfD in Germany — parties that left-wing liberals in Europe are trying to suppress despite growing popular support. Conservative populist movements in Europe may gain power, supported by the new American regime. Examples include Orbán, Fico, and even Meloni.

This is not just about pro-Russian leaders; it is about leaders for the future world, including Europe.

A Need for Proactive Action

Alexander Dugin: For Russia, it is essential to act decisively. The Americans are setting an example by aiming to eliminate the globalist, corrupt bureaucracy in the U.S. They are doing what we have long needed to do ourselves. While Putin has been moving in this direction, it has been far more gradual, careful, and extended over time.

Trump’s approach, on the other hand, is sharp and immediate. His team aims for a rapid rotation of elites, with some calling for the outright removal or even harsh punishment of opponents as soon as they enter the White House. This approach is very serious and highly consequential.

Allegiance to Russia’s Supreme Leader

Alexey Osin: Would it not benefit us to adopt this approach?

Alexander Dugin: That is correct. Another significant event of this year was Russia’s presidential election. It should not be forgotten. The election was not just an electoral process but a national ritual of pledging allegiance to the Supreme Leader — Putin.

The elections demonstrated his immutability. Putin is more than a president; he is more than an ordinary ruler of Russia. Historically, we recall figures like Gaius Julius Caesar, the Roman military leader and supreme ruler. Over time, his name became synonymous with leadership, with subsequent rulers being called “Caesars.” In a similar sense, Putin represents a function, a status, beyond a personal name. The title of Putin now signifies the national leader who saves Russia.

He is not just a temporary, elected head of state; he is the supreme historical ruler with such a level of public support that he represents continuity — essentially eternity, at least within the limits of a human lifetime. This is not a case of us having him; it is that we exist under him.

The 2024 presidential election was essentially the nation’s collective oath of loyalty to its leader. By voting for Putin, the people have effectively declared: “Rule us forever; rule as you are, or better; continue as you have; do more; and do not worry about political intrigues or maintaining power. All power is already yours. Focus entirely on the interests of our nation and state; nothing threatens you; you can do everything for the good of our country.”

This reflects our unique historical tradition. Unlike America’s election of Trump, which truly altered the course of American history — and possibly global history — our elections signify something more profound. They have become a testament to the nation’s enduring faith in its leader.

Putinism and the Role of the Katechon

Alexey Osin: Russian history often shows that after a great leader, something entirely opposite follows. Does this not pose a risk?

Alexander Dugin: It is true, and this is the greatest danger. The time has come to address this issue decisively. The alarm is already sounding, the red light is on. The solution is to transform Putin’s policies and vision into a coherent ideology — an enduring framework that embodies his principles, strategies, and convictions.

We need an ideology, at the very least as a creed for the political elite, but ideally one that can permeate society. Although the term “ideology” often carries negative connotations, it is essential that we transition from Putin to Putinism. This is necessary to mitigate the risks associated with reliance on a single individual.

Putin is more than a person; he represents a nation, a direction of development. His core, the essence of his patriotic reforms, must be institutionalized as an ideology. This is the challenge for our society, particularly for our intellectual and political elites.

We require an ideology that ensures continuity — not of individuals or dynasties but of spirit, mission, and strategy. Future leaders must look to Putin as a model and fear deviating from his line, which emphasizes sovereignty, traditional values, and the role of the state as a civilization. Whoever they may be, they must emulate Putin’s commitment to serving the people, history, and the state, rooted in Orthodox tradition. They must fulfill the role of the Katechon, a concept that transcends any individual.

Pro-Georgian Aspirations

Alexey Osin: Are we seeing Russia-centric processes beginning in some post-Soviet states? Are they following our example?

Alexander Dugin: Look at Georgia. The forces gaining ground there are not so much pro-Russian as they are pro-Georgian. Figures like Bidzina Ivanishvili, newly inaugurated President Mikheil Kavelashvili, and the ruling Georgian Dream party have emerged victorious over the globalist puppet Salome Zourabichvili, who represented the failed Biden administration.

These leaders could become neutral or even friendly towards Russia. At the very least, they are oriented towards sovereignty, much like us. Moreover, our traditional values align closely; we are both Orthodox nations with shared cultural roots.

Their shift is not necessarily inspired by us, nor does it require imitation. It is rooted in their national interests. For instance, Georgian Dream is no contradiction to Trumpism. For Trump, a conservative Georgia is acceptable, even desirable. While globalists see such movements as alternatives to the West, Trump sees them as part of a broader conservative alignment.

This reflects a broader pattern, not only in Georgia but also in Hungary, Slovakia, and even within the U.S. itself. Leaders like Ivanishvili, Kavelashvili, Orbán, and Fico are not just pro-Russian; they represent the future of a multipolar world.

The Fire of a Great War in the Middle East

Alexander Dugin: The AI also mentioned the tragic events in the Middle East. This region remains one of the most critical zones of escalation, with intense confrontations unfolding not only in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria but across the broader Middle East. The region appears on the brink of a large-scale war, and preventing this will be incredibly challenging.

The Zionist authorities are determined to build a “Greater Israel,” stretching “from sea to sea.” This ambition explains the invasions of the Golan Heights, Lebanon, and the genocidal actions in Gaza. Israeli conservatives are resolute and radical, and they have demonstrated this resolve. With support from pro-Israel factions in Trump’s administration, they may push even further. This poses a significant challenge.

The Middle East is witnessing truly serious developments, and it requires close monitoring. The situation is evolving rapidly.

The Fall of Assad’s Regime

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime is undoubtedly a blow to us. It seems the globalists timed their operation in Syria carefully, drawing Turkey and other regional actors — such as Qatar and various Islamic states — into the conflict to exploit the situation. Their intent was to “demonstrate our weakness.”

This is not our weakness, and they did not achieve their ultimate goal. However, the fall of a friendly regime into which we invested significantly cannot be considered inconsequential or positive. It is a sorrowful event and a disappointing outcome of the past year.

In 2025, the situation in the Middle East will likely escalate further. Unfortunately, this is not the last tragic development we will see from this region in the near future. I would not rule out the possibility of a war between Israel and Iran.

A Potential Israel-Iran War

Alexey Osin: How could they even wage war, given they do not share a border?

Alexander Dugin: Through Syria, Iraq, and missile strikes. Israel and Iran have already exchanged missile attacks. I would not dismiss the possibility of U.S. military involvement in such a campaign. There could also be strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities or a direct intervention in Yemen, given the staunch anti-Israel stance of the Yemeni Houthis, who are both brave and well-armed.

The broader Middle East is rife with tension between Sunnis and Shiites. Numerous factors could ignite a large-scale war. However, the primary driver remains the ambition to create a “Greater Israel.”

In 2025, it is possible that Israeli hardliners in Netanyahu’s government, such as Bezalel Smotrich, Itamar Ben Gvir, and other ministers, could achieve their aims and take drastic actions. This could include demolishing the Al-Aqsa Mosque to begin constructing the Third Temple — a long-standing threat against the Arab world. The 2023 Hamas operation, Al-Aqsa Flood, was largely provoked by this ambition.

Accordingly, a multitude of conflicts are likely to escalate in the Middle East. It is crucial to study the region closely, as several countries and territories may become engulfed in a major war.

Turkey, which is currently celebrating its so-called success in Syria, may also find itself ensnared in this conflict. The overthrow of Assad was a trap for Erdogan. The Middle East is a region full of traps.

But we must place our trust in God and His Providence.

(Translated from the Russian)

Alexander Dugin’s books can be purchased here.

Footnotes