Following the arrest of Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, serious unrest has erupted and continues to escalate in Turkey. The crisis is deepening. But to properly analyze the situation, several factors must be taken into account.
First, the mayor of Istanbul, like the mayor of Ankara, belongs to the liberal opposition to Erdoğan. This is the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which represents a left-liberal, secular, and generally pro-European alternative to Erdoğan’s own party, the AK Party (Justice and Development Party). This opposition is, in principle, oriented towarda the West and opposed to the Islamic orientation of Erdoğan’s policies. At the same time, it holds a fairly hostile stance towards Russia.
Second, Erdoğan himself has recently made several very grave political mistakes. The most significant of these is his support for the seizure of power in Damascus by the militants of al-Julani. This is a fatal error because, in doing so, Erdoğan inflicted a serious — possibly irreparable — blow to Turkish-Russian and Turkish-Iranian relations. Now, neither Russia nor Iran will come to Erdoğan’s aid. The situation has already turned against him, and the crisis may intensify further.
I do not believe that Iran or Russia are in any way involved in the unrest in Turkey. More likely, it is the West trying to overthrow Erdoğan. Nevertheless, his Syrian mistake is fundamental. Many inside Turkey not only failed to understand it but also condemned this policy of Erdoğan’s, which, as we now see, has led to the genocide of Alawites and other ethno-religious minorities, including Christians. In effect, only an extremely short-sighted politician could hand over power in Syria to al-Qaeda. And although Erdoğan has generally been considered a far-sighted politician, this mistake, in my view, will haunt him many times over.
Another aspect is his economic policy. The devaluation of the lira, rampant inflation — all this is undermining an already shaky Turkish economy. And of course, these failures — both in Syria and the economy — along with Erdoğan’s rapprochement with the European Union, with globalist forces, and his contact with the head of MI6 Richard Moore, are all pushing Erdoğan into a trap. As a result, the liberal yet Kemalist (and thus nationalist) opposition inside Turkey has seized the opportunity to capitalize on his failures. Their argument is: “We warned you that what happened in Syria would be a Pyrrhic victory, the economy is collapsing, and we have a stronger orientation towards the West than Erdoğan, under whom Turkey will never be accepted into Europe.”
And since Turkey has a functioning democracy, Erdoğan was unable to prevent the populations of Istanbul and Ankara from voting for opposition leaders in mayoral elections. In the end, Erdoğan decided to imprison the mayor of Istanbul. The question of whether it was justified or not is almost irrelevant — in any modern political regime, it is always possible to find grounds to imprison any official (in modern politics, there are no innocent people). Turkey is no exception. Therefore, the question is solely one of political expediency.
Erdoğan decided that things were going badly for him and that he needed to imprison his most active opponent — Ekrem İmamoğlu. Yet İmamoğlu is a Soros-affiliated figure, supported by globalist networks, and Erdoğan could have been supported in this move only if he himself had taken a hard stand against that Soros-connected faction. However, as already mentioned, Erdoğan had earlier stabbed his allies — Iran and Russia — in the back. Therefore, we cannot support him in the current situation.
This is a very bad situation for Erdoğan. All his opponents, taking advantage of the accumulated errors, have risen in revolt — a bona fide color revolution. And those conservative, even military-aligned Kemalists with a Eurasian orientation — whom Erdoğan had once accused in the fabricated “Ergenekon” case, and who, in fact, had saved him more than once (especially during the 2016 coup attempt) — will no longer come to his rescue.
In essence, Erdoğan is left without friends, having betrayed everyone multiple times. I believe his situation is unenviable. At the same time, we ourselves must be very cautious about the unfolding protests, because behind them stand the same organizers as in most color revolutions, including the one currently underway in Serbia. At the same time, the globalists involved in the protests are a minority — the majority are ordinary people genuinely dissatisfied with various political excesses in the leadership. Therefore, there are also objective reasons for what is happening — it seems Erdoğan has simply exhausted his margin for error. Yet he continues to make mistakes.
It is hard to say what could rectify the situation. Perhaps some form of Kemalist national unity government involving moderate Islamists (such as members of Erdoğan’s own party) could emerge. In this context, the question arises: what is happening with Devlet Bahçeli, the leader of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party and Erdoğan’s chief ally? There are even rumors that he has died, which the authorities are supposedly concealing. I think that is just conspiracy talk — but he truly has aged and weakened. Erdoğan can no longer rely on him or his “Grey Wolves,” once powerful and dangerous Turkish radical nationalists.
So, once again, I repeat: Erdoğan and his regime’s future looks grim. Still, of course, we would prefer to have a sovereign Turkey with an independent foreign policy as our neighbor — preferably friendly, though we are prepared even if it becomes hostile. Russia is ready for any turn of events.
(Translated from the Russian)
