The national-conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS) came in second place in presidential elections in Poland on Sunday, separated by the winner, the globalist Civic Platform party candidate, by a mere 1.7%. Pre-election polling had the Civic Platform candidate, Rafał Trzaskowski, beating PiS candidate, Karol Nawrocki, by five percentage points, so the results are somewhat surprising. A runoff will be held on June 1.
It is significant to note that nationalist parties of the right came in third and fourth place. Sławomir Mentzen, candidate of the Confederation Party, which combines economic liberalism with nationalism and anti-EU sentiment, came in third, with a respectable 15.4%. Grzegorz Braun’s The Crown Party, which mixes its nationalism with traditional Catholicism, got 6.2%. While there is bad blood between Confederation and Law and Justice, it appears likely that in the runoff many Crown and Confederation voters will side with Law and Justice. The Crown used to be a faction within Confederation. Three other parties, one centrist and the other two leftist, received a combined 14.1% of the vote.
The excellent performance of the three right-wing parties presents a challenge to Civic Platform Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Tusk, a globalist and former president of the European Council, a high EU post, became prime minister (for the second time) in 2023 after beating Law and Justice in legislative elections that year. Law and Justice came in first place but Tusk was able to put together a coalition of leftist and centrist parties to take the parliamentary majority. The current Polish president, Andrzej Duda, a Law and Justice party member, was able to be a thorn in Tusk’s side. Duda has held the post since 2015.
In the run-up to this election, Prime Minister Tusk, knowing his vulnerability, made a point in resisting demands by the EU to participate in the European Green New Deal and abide by EU migration rules, which would mandate the entry of large numbers of third-world immigrants into Poland. The Green New Deal, if implemented, would destroy that country’s agricultural sector. During 2005-2015, Law and Justice was the major political force in Poland and did a good job of keeping migrants out. Poles liked it that way. It was rather extraordinary that a globalist and ex-EU official was defying the bullies in Brussels, but politicians will do almost anything to stay in office.
The Civic Platform candidate, Rafał Trzaskowski, is part of the hard-left wing of his party. He has held sub-cabinet- and cabinet-level positions in Tusk governments. Trzaskowski has experience in both the Polish and EU parliaments. He is currently mayor of Warsaw. Karol Nawrocki, the Law and Justice candidate, has a doctorate in History and an MBA. He is the former president of the Institute of National Remembrance, a government body tasked with investigating crimes against the Polish people during times when the country was occupied by foreign powers. Previously, he was director of Poland’s Museum of the Second World War.
It will be interesting to see how things play out in the June 1 runoff. I think Tusk and Civic Platform will have a hard time in attaining the presidency for Rafał Trzaskowski, but we will have to see.
